Will I Ever Learn?

Hedging is a fundamental strategy profitable betters use. It allows oneself to minimize risk, and often ensure a profitable outcome regarding a game. I have never been afraid to hedge my bets because who doesn’t love making money. Ensuring a profit takes out all the stress of watching a game and sweating out the finish. Although I do hedge the majority of the time I have the option there is one exception to this, my teams. I despise betting against my teams. The best gamblers have no bias and just see the numbers. Well, I am undoubtedly not one of the best gamblers and this is one of the many reasons why. Let’s take a look at Saturday nights Celtics Rockets game through the mind of jglashow the gambler.

First off, I rarely bet on the Celtics spread/ML pre-game as I feel there is almost always going to be a better price at some point live. I did see value in the Gordon Hayward o1.5 made 3’s bet so I took it. This covered in the first half and was a great way to start the night. Not to mention the Celtics were absolutely rolling.

As the second half began the Rockets offense, which was unable to do much of anything the first 24 minutes, really came to life. A 36-point quarter allowed the Rockets to take a 3-point lead into the 4th. To the casual fan this was a horrid quarter of basketball for the Celtics, yet to me I saw opportunity. I grabbed the Celtics ML at +145, the first moment all game I saw real value in the C’s. 

The 4th quarter was an offensive struggle for both teams. I knew this was going to be a scrappy game that came down to the wire, perfectly suited for the gritty Celtics team. As the quarter went on I saw two more opportunities to live bet the C’s at +225, then a couple minutes later at +330.

The last minute of the game was approaching and these bets felt like guaranteed losers. The Celtics were down a couple possessions with little time left, then the momentum started to change. Marcus Smart hit a ridiculous 3 to make it a one possession game, and after a series of crazy events the Celtics were down 3 with Jayson Tatum at the free throw line. If you don’t know what happens next you clearly don’t follow Boston sports, but what happens next for me is exactly why the house always wins. After Jaylen hit that shot to send it to OT I knew exactly what to do, hedge. I saw the Rockets ML was +105 and I was ready to hit it and ensure a winning night. Then the slight buzz from the two and a half IPA’s I had consumed started talking. “Don’t hedge, we got all the momentum now” is what my mind was telling me, and guess what I didn’t hedge. A night that should have been very profitable ended up being a losing night, and once again the house won and I lost.

Follow me on ActionNetwork app @jglashow for all my official plays.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.