Gambling Guide: 2020 NFL Draft

God damn I have been bored. Life sucks without sports! I have tried to get my gambling fix through these shitty times with a number of different things. Esports were just far too boring for me to watch so I gave up on those pretty quickly. The Ballinacup league was semi entertaining but watching the events on my phone, with iffy internet connections all around made this event rather mediocre from a gambling standpoint. Horse racing has been a relief and something I have found to be incredibly fun and exhilarating. With that being said, a horrid call at Fonner Park ruined my pick 4 and put me on full blown tilt. I quickly ran out of credit, and decided a break was needed. Safe to say life as a degen has been extremely rough these last couple months. 

Tomorrow night is the first night that a sports event has any real implications on a season. Although the NFL draft can be slow to watch I always find its one of my favorite events of the year. Teams are transformed and storylines are created during these 3 days. Huge bonus that Belichick is a genius at moving picks and gaining assets this week, a trait that has been a staple of his career. I couldn’t imagine watching the draft as a fan of a team filled with nitwits in the front office, like many are. Pro tip, if you find the draft boring but want some reason to watch something meaningful related to sports, gamble on it! Here are my plays for tomorrow.

Tua Tagovailoa outside the top 10 +1000

When I saw this line, I thought it was a no brainer. I put this bet in Monday and the odds have shifted to +400 right now. This makes me really confident that GMs are worried about the health issues, and with Covid cancelling many workouts GMs never got to truly see how that hip is doing. I believe that taking longshot props is the best way to make a profit as the draft can be so unpredictable.

Patriots 1st pick Tight End +850

The patriots biggest hole on the team is tight end. I expect the Pats to trade that first round draft pick and move back into the 2nd, or try and get another 1 for next year. If they do get a 2ndCole Kmet has to be on the Pats radar. He is the clear best tight end in the draft. He both blocks and receives extremely well, traits that Bill needs with his tight ends. If the Patriots completely trade out of the 1stcouple rounds of this draft there is tons of value to be found at TE in the third round (where the Pats hold 4 picks). Guys like Adam Trautman and Colby Parkinson are guys I could see the Pats taking there. Overall the Pats biggest need is tight end so I believe the value at +850 is phenomenal. 

More D than O taken in round 1 +205

In Mike Mayock’s most recent mock draft he has 16 O and 16 D taken in round 1. This would obviously be a push and money would be returned. To me this means take the side with better value, and defense’s value is clearly much better. Most mock drafts have 15 D and 17 O taken which is likely skewing the odds but I trust Mayock, and reports are that numerous LB’s are expected to be taken higher than most mock drafts say.

These are my plays for the draft tomorrow. Good to be back blogging again, I have missed writing my gambling thoughts down. Let’s make some money!

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